基于临床实验室指标的HBV相关性原发性肝癌微血管侵犯预测模型的建立
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国家科技重大专项(2018ZX10302205-003);上海市科委重点项目(17JC1404500)


The Construction of Predictive Model of Microvascular Invasion in HBV-Related HCC Based on Clinical Laboratory Indicators
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    摘要:目的?通过分析临床检验数据,探寻HBV相关性原发性肝细胞癌(HCC)微血管侵犯(MVI)的独立危险因素,建立回归模型并分析其预测价值。方法?回顾性分析2015年1月至12月东方肝胆外科医院收治的1 628例HBV相关性 HCC患者的临床资料,采用单因素及多因素Logistic回归分析HCC发生MVI的独立危险因素,建立预测模型,并分析该模型的预测价值。结果?多因素Logistic回归结果表明,HBeAg(P<0.01)、AFP(P<0.01)、AFP-L3(P<0.01)、PT(P<0.01)和PLT(P<0.01)是HCC发生MVI的独立危险因素。基于此建立回归预测模型,Logistic(P)鉴别M0与高危MVI(M2)(M0 vs M2)时,其敏感性为73.7%,特异性为61.6%,准确性为66.6%,AUCROC(95%CI)为0.722(0.692,0.751)。结论?HBeAg、AFP、AFP-L3、PT、PLT是HBV相关性HCC发生MVI的独立危险因素,基于临床检验数据建立的回归模型对于预测HBV相关性HCC患者是否发生高危MVI(M2)具有一定的临床价值。

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    Abstract:?Objective?To find the independent risk factors of microvascular invasion(MVI)in hepatitis B(HBV)-related hepatocellular carcinoma(HCC), build a logistic regression model based on the data of clinical laboratory tests and analyze the prediction value of the model.?Methods?A cohort of 1 628 patients with HBV-related HCC was recruited in Eastern Hepatobiliary Surgery Hospital from January 2015 to December 2015. Their clinical data was collected. The independent risk factors of MVI in HBV-related HCC were anayazed by means of univariate and multivariate logistic regression. Then the logistic regression model was constructed, the prediction value of which was analyzed.?Results?According to the results of multivariate logistic regression, the independent risk factors of MVI in HBV-related HCC contained HBeAg(P<0.01), AFP(P<0.01), AFP-L3(P<0.01), PT(P<0.01), and PLT(P<0.01). Incorporating these 5 factors, the sensitivity, specificity, accuracy and AUCROC(95%CI) of the logistic regression model named Logistic(P)in differentiating M0 and M2(M0 vs M2) were 73.7%, 61.6%, 66.6% and 0.722(0.692,0.751), respectively.?Conclusions?HBeAg, AFP, AFP-L3, PT and PLT were the independent risk factors of MVI in HBV-related HCC. The logistic regression model based on the parameters of clinical laboratory tests was clinically valuable in predicting the existence of high-risk MVI(M2).

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何羽童,黄晨军,王颖,高春芳.基于临床实验室指标的HBV相关性原发性肝癌微血管侵犯预测模型的建立[J].临床检验杂志,2020,(7):498-502

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  • 收稿日期:2020-03-18
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  • 在线发布日期: 2020-11-13
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