基于机器学习的多重耐药肺炎克雷伯菌感染患者发生感染性休克风险预测模型的建立和验证
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Establishment and validation of a predictive model based on machine learning for the risk of septic shock in patients with multidrug-resistant Klebsiella pneumoniae infection
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    摘要:目的建立和验证一个基于机器学习的模型,用于预测多重耐药肺炎克雷伯菌(MDR-KP)感染患者发生感染性休克的风险。方法回顾性纳入2019年1月至2024年4月在南京医科大学附属淮安第一医院住院治疗的1385例MDR-KP感染患者。通过最小绝对收缩和选择算子(LASSO)回归和随机森林-递归特征消除法(RF-RFE)筛选出关键预测因子,构建包括逻辑回归(LR)、决策树(DT)、随机森林(RF)、极限梯度提升(XGBoost)、支持向量机(SVM)、K-最近邻(KNN)和轻量级梯度提升机(LightGBM)在内的多种机器学习模型。采用五折交叉验证评估模型性能,并使用曲线下面积(AUC)、准确性、敏感性、特异性、阳性预测值、阴性预测值和F1分数等指标进行评估。结果筛选出6个关键预测因子,包括难以脱离呼吸机、血管活性药物的使用、凝血功能障碍、急性肾损伤、脓毒血症及降钙素原。随机森林模型在验证集中表现最优,AUC值为0.864。结论成功构建了MDR-KP感染患者发生感染性休克的风险预测模型,为临床早期识别高风险患者提供有效工具。未来需在更大样本中验证模型稳定性,并考虑纳入更多影响因素以提升泛化能力。

    Abstract:

    Abstract: Objective To establish and validate a model based on machine learning for predicting the risk of septic shock in patients with multidrug-resistant Klebsiella pneumoniae (MDR-KP) infection. Methods A total of 1 385 patients with MDR-KP infection hospitalized at the Affiliated Huaian No.1 People's Hospital of Nanjing Medical University fromJanuary 2019 to April 2024 were retro-spectively enrolled in the study. The key predictive factors were identified using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression and Random Forest Recursive Feature Elimination(RF-RFE). Then,the multiple machine learning models,including logistic regression(LR),decision trees(DT),random forests (RF),extreme gradient boosting(XGBoost),support vector machines (SVM),K-nearest neighbors(KNN),and light gradient boosting machines (LightGBM),were constructed. The performances of these models were evaluated using the five-fold cross-validation method. The area under the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve(AUC),accuracy,sensitivity,specificity,positive predictive value,negative predictive value,and Fl score of these models were also evaluated. ResultsSix key predictive factors, including difficulty in weaning from mechanical ventilation, use of vasoactivedrugs,coagulation disorders,acute kidney injury,septicemia,and the level of procalcitonin,were identified.Therandomforest model performed the best in the validation set, with an AUC value of O.864. ConclusionA model for predicting the risk of septic shock in patients with MDR-KP infection is successfully constructed, providing an effective tool for early identification of high-risk patansa more influencing factors to improve its generalizability.

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时汀,李畅,潘胜男,王凯,姜玉章,禹亚彬.基于机器学习的多重耐药肺炎克雷伯菌感染患者发生感染性休克风险预测模型的建立和验证[J].临床检验杂志,2026,44(01):17-22

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  • 收稿日期:2025-04-07
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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-04-15
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